LoopNet, Inc. which operates the largest online commercial real estate marketplace with more than three million members, recently released the results of its just closed Fourth Quarter 2009 LoopNet Pulse Poll.

More than 1,000 LoopNet members responded to the poll, which was conducted in the second half of October. The members include commercial real estate investors, brokers and owners who use the LoopNet marketplace to search for available space and investment opportunities, as well as to market available properties.

When Will The Commercial Real Estate Market Recover?
In the last survey, conducted in July 2009, a vast majority (66 percent) expected the volume of commercial real estate transactions to rebound in 2010 or earlier, while only one-third expected the recovery to wait until 2011 or later. In the Q4 survey, that number has decreased to just over 50 percent, while there has been a sharp increase (up 13 percent to 46 percent) in those expecting the recovery to wait until 2011 or later. Nearly one in five expect to wait until 2012 to see a recovery in transaction volume.

When cut by industry role, investors are slightly more pessimistic, with a median expectation of recovery timing that is approximately one quarter later than that of brokers or commercial property owners.

Have Commercial Real Estate Prices Hit Bottom Yet?
Despite the declines in pricing seen over the past quarter, respondents' expectations for future pricing declines remain almost unchanged from the last survey. At the beginning of Q3, 52 percent of respondents expected to see future declines of 11 percent or more. At the beginning of Q4, that number is 53 percent. This suggests that future expectations of cash flow and value have continued to deteriorate (or at best remain uncertain), preventing pricing from stabilizing even after the declines in Q3.

All three groups surveyed — investors, brokers and owners — expect values to drop further. Owners are the most optimistic, with nearly 20 percent saying prices have already bottomed.

When Will Commercial Real Estate Sales Prices Hit Bottom?
Expectations for when pricing will bottom out mirror expectations for when transaction volume will recover: Q2 2010 was most common choice, but more than 10% said 2012.

What Are The Biggest Barriers To Commercial Real Estate Market Recovery?
Lack of access to debt financing is the No. 1 barrier to market recovery, according to survey participants.  High asking prices were the No. 2 reason cited by investors and brokers, while owners considered this less of an issue. Uncertainty about future cash flows remains a significant factor.

Results can be viewed on the LoopNet blog: http://blog.loopnet.com/.